Analysis of Farmers’ Perceived Effects of Climate Change on Rice Production in Benue State, Nigeria

Abstract

Climate change is a major threat to food security in Sub-Saharan Africa, where agriculture is predominantly rain-fed and highly vulnerable to climatic variability. Rice, a staple food in Nigeria, is particularly affected by changing rainfall patterns, temperature fluctuations, and other environmental stresses. This study assessed rice farmers’ perceptions of climate change and its effects on rice production in Benue State, Nigeria. A multistage sampling procedure was used to select 200 farmers across three agroecological zones. Data were collected using structured questionnaires and analyzed with descriptive statistics and an ordered logistic regression model. Results showed that most respondents were within the economically active age group (41–60 years), male (72%), and had some formal education (82%). Farmers generally perceived climate change as a major constraint to rice production, reporting challenges such as poor germination, erratic rainfall, declining yields, pest outbreaks, and post-harvest losses. Mean scores across nine perception indicators exceeded 1.5 on a three-point scale, highlighting widespread recognition of climate risks. Regression analysis revealed a positive and statistically significant relationship between the perception index and rice yield category (β = 0.042; OR = 1.043; 95% CI: 1.025–1.061; p < .001; Pseudo R² = 0.312), suggesting that greater awareness of climate change was associated with improved yield outcomes. The study concludes that strengthening farmers’ adaptive capacity is crucial for sustaining rice production in Benue State. It recommends enhanced extension services, adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices, and improved access to information to build resilience against climate risks.